AGP Executive Report

Political Transition: Madagascar marks one year since Andry Rajoelina’s ouster, but many promises of change remain unmet. A new investigation says Russia rapidly expanded its political, military and economic networks after President Michael Randrianirina took office. Digital Reform: GSMA says policy changes on smartphone affordability, rural networks, mobile-sector taxes and digital services could connect 1.13 million more people to mobile internet and add MGA 4.1 trillion to GDP by 2031. Food Security: About 3.7 million people face acute hunger, including 426,000 in critical conditions, as drought and El Niño cut harvests and push up food prices.

One Year After the Uprising: Madagascar’s Gen Z protests toppled Andry Rajoelina after demands for water, electricity, justice and transparency. A year into President Michael Randrianirina’s rule, reports say promised change remains limited, while Russia has rapidly expanded its political, military and economic networks on the island. Hunger Crisis: About 3.7 million people face acute food insecurity, including 426,000 in critical conditions. Drought and El Niño have cut harvests, driven up food prices and pushed the government to import more rice, adding pressure to foreign-exchange reserves. Digital Reform: A GSMA report says policy changes could connect 1.13 million more people to mobile internet and add 4.1 trillion ariary to GDP by 2031; uptake remains low despite wider network coverage. Public Services: Madagascar is testing an online passport portal for applications, payments and tracking.

Digital Policy: A GSMA report says targeted reforms could connect 1.13 million more people to mobile internet and add MGA 4.1 trillion to Madagascar’s economy by 2031, with priorities including cheaper smartphones, rural coverage and mobile-sector tax changes. Political Transition: One year after Gen Z protests helped force Andry Rajoelina from office, a new retrospective says little of the promised change has materialised. Resource Governance: Madagascar has formalised Harena’s exploitation permit for the Ampasindava project, putting the spotlight on oversight of major resource developments. Legal Affairs: Malagasy tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga was denied bail again in Mauritius; his wife has called his detention a political elimination. Public Services: Madagascar is testing an online passport portal for applications, payments and tracking.

Post-coup politics: A year after Gen Z protests helped drive Andry Rajoelina from office, reporting says little of the promised change has materialised. Public services: Madagascar is testing an online passport portal for applications, payments and tracking. Mining and procurement: The government formalised Harena’s Ampasindava exploitation permit, while separate reports say the state utility can bypass tenders to buy generators from Russia—decisions likely to draw scrutiny over resource governance and public spending. Ravatomanga case: Malagasy tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga was denied bail again in Mauritius; his wife called his jailing a “political elimination.” Regional diplomacy: Madagascar was among three Indian Ocean states reported to have withdrawn overflight clearance for Taiwan’s president, amid allegations of Chinese pressure.

Food Security: Aid groups warn that families in southern Madagascar are facing food shortages earlier than usual as El Niño strengthens, and urge governments and donors to help communities prepare. Mining and Energy: Madagascar has formalized Harena’s permit to exploit Ampasindava, while a state utility is reportedly allowed to bypass bidding rules to buy Russian generators—signs of major decisions over resources and closer ties with Moscow. Post-Protest Politics: A year after Gen Z protests helped oust Andry Rajoelina, coverage says little of the promised change has materialized. Political and Business Ties: Malagasy tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga was denied bail again in Mauritius; his wife has described his detention as political elimination.

Transition Watch: One year after Gen Z protests and Andry Rajoelina’s ouster, a retrospective says little of the promised change has materialized, keeping pressure on the authorities to deliver. Public Services: Madagascar is testing e-Pasipaoro, a portal for passport applications, renewals, payments and tracking; applicants will still need to attend in person for biometrics. Resource Governance: The government formalized Harena’s Ampasindava exploitation permit. Separately, reports say the state utility can bypass bidding rules to buy Russian generators, putting procurement transparency in focus. Legal Affairs: A Mauritius court again denied bail to Malagasy tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga; his wife described his detention as “political elimination.”

Digital Government: Madagascar is testing e-Pasipaoro, an online passport service for applications, renewals, payments and tracking, though applicants will still need to appear in person for biometric capture. Post-Coup Politics: A year after Gen Z protests helped oust President Andry Rajoelina, a new report says little of the promised change has materialised. Separately, tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga has again been denied bail in Mauritius; his wife calls his jailing political elimination. Russia Ties: Madagascar’s state utility can bypass competitive bidding to buy generators from Russia, as ties deepen after the coup. Mining Oversight: The government has formalised Harena’s exploitation permit for the Ampasindava project. Diplomacy: Madagascar was among the countries that revoked overflight permission for Taiwan’s president before his planned trip to Eswatini, in a dispute widely viewed as pressure from China.

Digital Government: Madagascar is testing e-Pasipaoro, a portal for passport applications, renewals, payments and tracking. Applicants will still need to appear in person for biometrics, and the ministry’s estimated processing times do not include passport production or collection. Ravatomanga Case: A Mauritian court again denied bail to Malagasy tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga, citing flight and evidence-interference risks in a cross-border money-laundering investigation involving about 7 billion Mauritian rupees. His lawyers plan to appeal. Post-uprising Politics: One year after Gen Z protests toppled Andry Rajoelina, a new assessment says little of the promised change has materialised. Public Procurement: Madagascar’s state utility has been allowed to bypass bidding rules to buy generators from Russia, as ties deepen after the coup. Mining Oversight: The government has formalised Harena’s exploitation permit for the Ampasindava project.

Anti-Fraud Operation: A U.S. crackdown on alleged scam networks linked to Madagascar reportedly shut 13 compounds, led to 400 arrests and seized $52 million in cryptocurrency. The FBI said its wider Africa operation also freed more than 100 trafficked workers and identified at least $11 million in potentially recoverable funds. Ravatomanga Case: A Mauritian court again denied bail to Malagasy tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga, citing flight and evidence-tampering risks in a money-laundering investigation involving about $150 million. His lawyers plan to appeal; the court urged investigators to move faster. Political Transition: One year after Andry Rajoelina was ousted following youth-led protests, activists say the military-backed government has yet to meet their basic demands. A new constitution is due for a referendum before presidential elections planned for late 2027, but the process remains stalled. Mining Policy: Madagascar formalised Harena Rare Earths’ exploitation permit for its Ampasindava project. The company still needs environmental approvals before construction can begin.

Ravatomanga Case: A Mauritian court again denied bail to Malagasy tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga, citing flight and evidence-tampering risks in a money-laundering investigation involving about $150 million in alleged assets. His lawyers plan to appeal. Transition Watch: A year after youth protests ousted Andry Rajoelina, activists say basic demands remain unmet under the military-backed government. A new constitution is due to go to referendum ahead of elections planned for late 2027. Mining Policy: Madagascar has formalized Harena Rare Earths’ exploitation permit for its Ampasindava project, but environmental approvals are still needed before construction can begin. Malagasy Community Abroad: A new Comorian law reserving small businesses for citizens by descent has unsettled Malagasy traders, who fear losing livelihoods if the rules take effect.

Transition Under Scrutiny: One year after Andry Rajoelina fled following youth-led protests, activists say basic demands remain unmet. The military-backed government has promised elections by late 2027, but work on a new constitution is stalled. Mining and Oversight: The government has formalised Harena Rare Earths’ exploitation permit for its Ampasindava project; environmental approvals are still needed before construction can begin. Legal and Political Stakes: As a Mauritius court considers tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga’s bail request, his wife calls his money-laundering case “political elimination.” Several Sodiat subsidiaries remain under provisional judicial administration. Energy Procurement: A report says Madagascar’s state utility can bypass competitive bidding to buy generators from Russia, as ties between the countries deepen after the coup.

Extradition: Belarus says a Malagasy citizen accused of helping 13 foreigners enter the country illegally and travel onward to the EU was extradited from the UAE. Regional Trade: A new Comorian law reserving some small businesses for citizens by descent has unsettled Malagasy traders, though it has not yet taken effect. Ravatomanga Case: The wife of jailed tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga called his Mauritius money-laundering case “political elimination” ahead of a bail ruling; the allegation remains her family’s claim. Energy and Investment: Madagascar’s state utility has reportedly won an exemption from competitive bidding to buy Russian generators as ties deepen after the coup. Separately, the Fonds Souverain Malagasy and Gemcorp announced a partnership to support investment, including in energy and mining.

Extradition: A Malagasy man accused by Belarus of organizing the illegal migration of 13 people to the EU was extradited from the UAE to Minsk. The allegations concern a 2024 operation involving citizens of Burundi, Cameroon, Comoros and Nigeria. Ravatomanga Case: The wife of jailed Malagasy tycoon Mamy Ravatomanga has called his money-laundering case a campaign of “political elimination.” A Mauritius court is due to rule on his bail request on Oct. 12; Madagascar’s anti-corruption court has placed parts of his business group under provisional administration. Russia Ties: Madagascar’s government has authorized state utility Jirama to buy 18 diesel generators directly from a Russian supplier, bypassing normal tenders. The move comes as ties with Moscow deepen following last year’s coup, amid persistent power shortages and public anger over unreliable electricity.

Energy and Russia: Madagascar’s government has authorized state utility Jirama to buy 18 diesel generators directly from Russia’s Malmekhservice, bypassing normal tenders. The deal deepens ties with Moscow since President Michael Randrianirina took power in last year’s coup, as power shortages and Jirama’s financial strain persist. Critical Minerals: Madagascar is among five African countries selected for a UN programme offering policy and regulatory support to help build local value chains for energy-transition minerals. Regional Diplomacy: Taiwan says Madagascar was among three countries that withdrew overflight permission for President Lai Ching-te’s planned trip to Eswatini in April, a disruption Taipei blamed on Chinese pressure.

Critical Minerals: Madagascar is among five African countries selected for UN support on critical energy-transition minerals, including policy, legal and regulatory advice to help retain more value from its resources. Energy and Oversight: A government decree lets state utility Jirama bypass normal tenders to buy 18 diesel generators from Russia’s Malmekhservice. The deal’s cost and capacity remain undisclosed, as Moscow deepens ties with the government that took power in last year’s coup. Diplomacy: Taiwan says Madagascar was among three countries that withdrew overflight permission for President Lai Ching-te’s aircraft in April; Taipei accused Beijing of pressuring them.

Climate Risks: Madagascar is bracing for a potentially powerful El Niño, with drought threatening famine-scarred southern regions and forecasts warning of wider extreme weather. Public Health: At least 183 people were hospitalized after suspected food poisoning at a company in Antananarivo. The government is covering medical costs while food samples are tested. Energy and Governance: A decree lets state utility Jirama buy 18 diesel generators directly from a Russian supplier, bypassing normal tenders. The deal’s value and generator capacity were not disclosed, as Moscow’s ties with Madagascar’s post-coup government deepen. Critical Minerals: Madagascar is among five African countries selected for UN support on critical-energy-mineral policies and regulations. Clean Energy: UK-backed funding will support African projects, including in Madagascar, aimed at expanding reliable power and reducing reliance on diesel.